The Southern California Housing Market at Mid-2026: San Diego, Orange, and Riverside

Updated July 2026

By Ray Stendall | Published July 1, 2026 | County data: June 2026 Reports on Housing

Across San Diego, Orange, and Riverside County, the Southern California housing market has settled into balance at mid-2026, with homes taking roughly 83 to 101 days to sell depending on the county. Ray Stendall of Stendall Realty Group reads the mid-year picture as steady, rate-constrained, and split three ways, where the price you set now matters more than it has in years.

Where we stand at mid-year

If you own or you’re thinking about buying in San Diego, Orange, or Riverside County, here’s my honest mid-year read. 2026 looks a lot like 2025. Slightly fewer homes for sale than a year ago, steady but muted buyer demand, and a market that’s gone from frantic to balanced. The price you set matters more now than it has in years.

The national story, the one I cover in the Monthly Intelligence Report, is that interest rates are staying high through 2026 and the rate cut everyone’s waiting for isn’t coming on the expected timeline. Locally, that comes down to one number I watch: 6.5%. Below it, our market speeds up. Above it, it slows. We’re sitting just above it right now, and the data says we stay there for the rest of the year.

What that means for you depends heavily on which of our three local markets your home sits in. They aren’t behaving the same way at all.

The backdrop, and what it means here

A United States-Iran peace agreement was signed June 17 and oil prices fell sharply, but inflation stayed high. It ran 4.2% over the past year as of May, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred core gauge actually rose to 3.4% in the June 25 report. The Fed held rates on June 17 and signaled its next move is more likely a hike than a cut. The average 30-year mortgage rate is in the mid-6% range, 6.49% on Freddie Mac’s weekly survey as of June 25, with daily trackers near 6.5%. The national takeaway is simple. Rates aren’t dropping into the 5s this year, so the housing market we have right now is the one we plan around.

Three things make that national picture land differently here in Southern California.

First, the oil relief helps us more than most. California pays the highest pump prices in the country, about $5.70 a gallon in mid-June, roughly $1.60 above the national average, per AAA. With oil now down to about $73 a barrel and holding there, that relief should keep feeding through to a Southern California household budget faster and bigger than almost anywhere else. It matters most for the commuter-belt buyer in Riverside County and the inland edges of San Diego and Orange.

Second, high rates bite harder against high prices. Our home prices sit far above the national median of $429,300, so a mid-6% mortgage costs a local buyer far more in absolute dollars than it costs the average American. California’s tightening home-insurance market piles on a cost layer buyers in most states don’t carry. Affordability is the central constraint in all three counties.

Third, and this is the part people miss, that pressure is exactly why our market is balanced rather than falling. Most local owners are sitting on a low, locked-in pandemic-era mortgage and a large equity cushion. With rates staying high, they have little reason to sell. That’s precisely why inventory across all three counties is now below last year even as the market slows. High rates don’t crash our market. They freeze the people who’d otherwise list, which keeps a floor under prices and keeps distress near zero.

San Diego County

San Diego is in balance, tilting slightly toward sellers in the right price range. Homes are taking about 87 days to sell at the current pace. That’s a little faster than this time last year at 99 days, though noticeably slower than the 61 days of 2024 or the 39 days of 2023. The market has been slowing gradually since March as more homes come on than sell.

Homes for sale: about 5,699, up modestly over the past two weeks but now roughly 6% below where we were a year ago. For the first time since early 2024, we have fewer homes on the market than last year, because slightly fewer owners are listing.
Buyer demand: about 1,976 homes going under contract per month, steady and actually a touch higher than last year, though a fraction of the pre-pandemic norm.
The hot spot: detached (single-family) homes priced $750,000 to $1.25 million are the fastest-moving part of the market. Detached homes overall, at 80 days, are selling much faster than condominiums and townhomes at 110 days.
What sellers are doing: a high number are pulling their homes off the market rather than cutting their price, about 5,224 so far this year, the most since before the pandemic. In plain terms, most sellers don’t have to sell, so they’re choosing to wait rather than negotiate.

Here’s my bottom line for San Diego. Price it right from day one and you can still sell quickly, especially a detached home in that sweet spot. Overprice it and you join the growing pile of homes that sit, then quietly delist.

Orange County

Orange County is the steadiest of the three and looks almost identical to last year. Homes are taking about 83 days to sell, essentially the same as last year’s 85, against 51 days in 2024 and 41 in 2023.

Homes for sale: about 4,551, up slightly over two weeks but about 2% below last year.
Buyer demand: about 1,637 homes under contract per month, basically flat versus last year.
The hot spot: detached homes priced below $1.5 million move fastest. Detached again leads at 76 days, well ahead of condos at 94.
The high end is cooling. Luxury homes, the top 10% of the market above $2.5 million, are now taking about 177 days to sell, the slowest since January. The higher you go, the slower it gets. Homes between $4 million and $6 million are running past 200 days.
Health of the market: distress is essentially nonexistent. In April, 99.9% of closed sales were equity sellers with no foreclosures, and homes sold at an average of 100% of asking. This is a healthy, equity-rich market by every measure.

Bottom line for Orange County: a remarkably stable, equity-strong market. The action is in well-priced detached homes under $1.5 million. The luxury tier takes patience and realistic pricing.

Riverside County

Riverside is the most rate-sensitive of the three and the slowest-moving, which is exactly what you’d expect from a more affordable, commute-driven, inland market in a high-rate year. Homes are taking about 101 days to sell, though that actually improved by a day recently and beats last year’s 113 days.

Homes for sale: about 7,967, and here’s the notable part. Inventory fell about 2% over the past two weeks, the only one of our three counties where supply dropped, and it now sits about 7% below last year. The Coachella Valley runs on its own seasonal clock and already peaked in mid-April.
Buyer demand: about 2,367 homes under contract per month. That slipped a little over the past two weeks, but it’s running about 4% above last year, 2,367 against 2,272.
The hot spot: detached homes priced $500,000 to $1 million. Detached again moves much faster at 91 days than condos at 151.
One bright spot at the top: unlike Orange County, Riverside’s luxury demand for homes above $1 million is actually up about 8% from last year, even as the overall luxury pace slowed to about 170 days.

Bottom line for Riverside: this is the most patience-required market of the three. Affordability pressure from rates is most acute here, so pricing at or below the most recent comparable sale from day one is essential. It is not falling apart, though. Inventory is tightening and demand is steady.

How our three counties fit the bigger picture

In the national report I describe three different U.S. housing markets. Southern California has all three inside our service area.

Coastal-premium, holds or rises. The coastal, higher-end pockets of Orange County and San Diego. Equity-rich, less rate-sensitive, supported by buyers who often don’t need financing. This is where prices are most insulated.
The middle, flat to slightly soft. The established inland suburbs of San Diego and Orange County. Solid demographics, but the most exposed to the white-collar layoff trend now showing up in finance and technology.
Rate-sensitive inland, softest. Much of Riverside County and the commuter belt, where buyers finance most of the purchase, the commute math matters, and 6.5%-plus rates bite hardest.

Same county lines, three different markets. That’s why a single “the market is up” or “the market is down” headline is the wrong tool for your specific home. For a neighborhood-level read on North County San Diego, see the market pages.

What this means for you

If you’re thinking of selling, the market rewards correct pricing and punishes wishful pricing. Well-priced detached homes in the hot ranges, $750K to $1.25M in San Diego, under $1.5M in Orange, $500K to $1M in Riverside, can still sell quickly. The homes sitting are the overpriced ones, and a growing number are giving up and delisting. So the real question isn’t whether it’s a good market. It’s what the right number is for this home, today.

If you’re thinking of buying, you have more room and less competition than you did in 2023 and 2024, with almost no distress to compete over. Don’t wait for rates to fall into the 5s this year, because the data doesn’t support it. Do ask about builder rate buydowns on new construction, often 2 to 3 points off the rate, which help your monthly payment more than any likely Fed move in 2026.

If you’re just watching your equity, prices are holding near records and distress is near zero. There’s no crash signal in this data. What there is, is a slowdown to a balanced, normal market, which after the last few years is a healthy thing.

Questions I’m hearing right now

How long does it take to sell a house in Southern California in 2026?

At the current pace, about 87 days in San Diego County, 83 days in Orange County, and 101 days in Riverside County. Detached homes sell considerably faster than condos in all three counties, and well-priced homes in the hot ranges move much quicker than those averages.

Is the Southern California housing market crashing in 2026?

No. Inventory in all three counties is below last year, buyer demand is steady, distress sales are near zero (99.9% of April closings in Orange County were equity sellers), and prices are holding near records. The market has slowed to balanced, which is different from falling.

What price ranges are selling fastest?

Detached homes priced $750,000 to $1.25 million in San Diego County, below $1.5 million in Orange County, and $500,000 to $1 million in Riverside County are the fastest-moving segments of the market right now.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?

The data says rates stay in the mid-6% range through 2026, so waiting for a rate in the 5s this year means waiting for something the numbers don’t support. Builder rate buydowns on new construction, often 2 to 3 points off the rate, currently do more for a monthly payment than any likely Fed move this year.

Is now a good time to sell in San Diego, Orange, or Riverside County?

Homes priced to the most recent comparable sale are still selling, and inventory below last year works in a seller’s favor. Overpriced homes sit; San Diego alone has seen about 5,224 listings pulled off the market this year. The pricing decision matters more than the timing decision.

Let’s talk about your specific property

Every home in San Diego, Orange, and Riverside County sits in one of those three markets, and the right move is different for each. If you’re weighing a sale, a purchase, or you just want to know what your home would realistically do in today’s market, that’s the conversation I have every day at Stendall Realty Group.

If you want that read on your specific property, call or text Ray Stendall at 858-877-0484, or visit stendallrealtygroup.com. Stendall Realty Group, eXp Realty, DRE #02038682.

Ray Stendall | Stendall Realty Group | eXp Realty | California DRE 02038682 | Carlsbad, CA

This brief is for general informational purposes and is not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Real estate decisions should be made in consultation with qualified professionals familiar with your specific situation.